Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Rosenborg
Rosenborg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
O. Selnæs 16'
4/14/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 3Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Rosenborg53%
×Draw23%
Ham-Kam23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg
1.77
Ham-Kam
1.08

Rosenborg creates 64% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

creates per match

Rosenborg
1.76
Ham-Kam
1.03

allows per match

Rosenborg
1.12
Ham-Kam
1.78

finishing

Rosenborg+0.07on par
Ham-Kam-0.18scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw
77%
Rosenborg or Ham-Kam
77%
Draw or Ham-Kam
47%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+
30%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals
83%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
53%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
26%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
66%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
29%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)
70%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 24 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.76 + Ham-Kam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ham-Kam attack 1.03 + Rosenborg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rosenborg scores more
53%
level
23%
Ham-Kam scores more
23%

Rosenborg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
O. SelnæsRosenborgRosenborg · M
8.2

Match Events

16'
O. Selnæs↳ E. Reitan
38'
Tore Andre Soras
41'
John Olav Norheim
46'
H. Udahl← P. Kirkevold
46'
K. Onsrud← N. Ødegård
47'
Tomáš Nemčík
66'
J. Nelson← J. Reitan-Sunde
66'
G. Simenstad← S. Strand Nilsen
75'
A. Sadiku← O. Sæter
75'
O. Kjærgaard← M. Mawa
80'
John Olav Norheim
80'
John Olav Norheim
85'
M. Broholm← E. Frederiksen
85'
A. Pereira← U. Yttergård Jenssen
87'
Sverre Halseth Nypan
87'
Luc Mares
89'
V. Jónsson← V. Kongsro

Possession

64%Rosenborg

Shots

11Rosenborg

Pass accuracy

56%Rosenborg

Statistics

RosenborgHam-Kam
Overview
64%Possession36%
11Total Shots11
0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.70
4Corners6
13Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots11
1On Target2
6Off Target4
4Blocked5
5Inside Box8
6Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
506Total Passes280
408Accurate Passes179
81%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides4

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–0 Ham-Kam

Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 1-0 in Eliteserien on April 14, 2024.

Goals: O. Selnæs (16').

Rosenborg controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.