Ham-Kam 3–0 Rosenborg: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Ham-Kam

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rosenborg

V. Kongsro 82'

K. Onsrud 43'

U. Yttergård Jenssen 15' (OG)

8/20/2023

Eliteserien · Round 19Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Ham-Kam37%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.53

Ham-Kam

1.50

Rosenborg

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.32

creates per match

1.44

1.62

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.32

Rosenborg

1.44

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.62

Rosenborg

1.67

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.49scores more

Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

61%

Ham-Kam or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

63%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

18%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

78%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

44%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

19%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

78%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

45%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

49%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.32 + Rosenborg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rosenborg attack 1.44 + Ham-Kam defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

37%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

39%

Rosenborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

V. Kongsro

Ham-Kam · M

8.5

Match Events

15'

U. Yttergård JenssenOwn goal

43'

K. Onsrud

57'

P. Skjelbred← S. Nypan

57'

T. Børkeeiet← S. Väänänen

60'

ÍIsak Snær Þorvaldsson

65'

T. Sørås← M. Mawa

75'

E. Tagseth← O. Skarsem

75'

L. Cornic← A. Pereira

78'

M. Bjørlo← K. Onsrud

78'

M. Holte← Í. Þorvaldsson

79'

J. Enkerud← O. Kjærgaard

82'

V. Kongsro↳ M. Bjørlo

90+2'

A. Melgalvis← V. Kongsro

90+2'

J. Gonstad← P. Kirkevold

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamRosenborg

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots13

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.86

7Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots13

8On Target5

3Off Target6

0Blocked2

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

305Total Passes545

227Accurate Passes465

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1