Rosario 1–1 Municipal Liberia: Result & Stats

Rosario

FT

1 – 1

Municipal Liberia

8/17/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 5Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rosario49%

×Draw24%

Municipal Liberia27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosarioExpected goals in this matchMunicipal Liberia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.22

Rosario

1.73

Municipal Liberia

1.22

Rosario creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 80 away

1.91

creates per match

1.35

1.09

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Rosario

1.91

Municipal Liberia

1.35

allows per match

Rosario

1.09

Municipal Liberia

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosario+0.00on par

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario ↓

Municipal Liberia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rosario or draw

73%

Rosario or Municipal Liberia

76%

Draw or Municipal Liberia

51%

Winning margin

Rosario wins by 2+

27%

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rosario 1+ goals

82%

Rosario 2+ goals

52%

Rosario 3+ goals

25%

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals

70%

Municipal Liberia 2+ goals

34%

Municipal Liberia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rosario (draw refunded)

65%

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Municipal Liberia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario attack 1.91 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Municipal Liberia attack 1.35 + Rosario defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rosario scores more

49%

level

24%

Municipal Liberia scores more

27%

Rosario at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff