Municipal Liberia 2–1 Rosario: Result & Stats

Municipal Liberia

FT

2 – 1

Rosario

10/13/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 14Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Municipal Liberia53%

×Draw26%

Rosario21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Municipal LiberiaExpected goals in this matchRosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.88

Municipal Liberia

1.56

Rosario

0.88

Municipal Liberia creates 77% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 12 away

1.55

creates per match

0.75

1.01

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Municipal Liberia

1.55

Rosario

0.75

allows per match

Municipal Liberia

1.01

Rosario

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Liberia ↓

Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Municipal Liberia or draw

79%

Municipal Liberia or Rosario

74%

Draw or Rosario

47%

Winning margin

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+

28%

Rosario wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals

79%

Municipal Liberia 2+ goals

46%

Municipal Liberia 3+ goals

21%

Rosario 1+ goals

59%

Rosario 2+ goals

22%

Rosario 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)

71%

Rosario (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Liberia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Rosario away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Liberia attack 1.55 + Rosario defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rosario attack 0.75 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Municipal Liberia scores more

53%

level

26%

Rosario scores more

21%

Municipal Liberia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Municipal Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff