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Rosario vs Deportivo Cartagena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Rosario
Rosario
FT
3 – 2
Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
8/3/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rosario51%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Cartagena27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario
1.98
Deportivo Cartagena
1.41

Rosario creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rosario
1.91
Deportivo Cartagena
1.72

allows per match

Rosario
1.09
Deportivo Cartagena
2.06

finishing

Rosario+0.00on par
Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rosario or draw
73%
Rosario or Deportivo Cartagena
78%
Draw or Deportivo Cartagena
49%

Winning margin

Rosario wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rosario 1+ goals
86%
Rosario 2+ goals
59%
Rosario 3+ goals
31%
Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rosario (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario attack 1.91 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + Rosario defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rosario scores more
51%
level
22%
Deportivo Cartagena scores more
27%

Rosario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Rosario 3–2 Deportivo Cartagena

Rosario beat Deportivo Cartagena 3-2 in Liga de Ascenso on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.