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Deportivo Cartagena vs Rosario — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
FT
1 – 3
Rosario
Rosario
9/25/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 11Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Cartagena55%
×Draw24%
Rosario21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cartagena
1.70
Rosario
0.94

Deportivo Cartagena creates 81% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.81
Rosario
0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.13
Rosario
1.58

finishing

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par
Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cartagena ↓

Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cartagena or draw
79%
Deportivo Cartagena or Rosario
76%
Draw or Rosario
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
30%
Rosario wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
51%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
24%
Rosario 1+ goals
61%
Rosario 2+ goals
24%
Rosario 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
73%
Rosario (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cartagena at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Rosario away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.81 + Rosario defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rosario attack 0.75 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Cartagena scores more
55%
level
24%
Rosario scores more
21%

Deportivo Cartagena at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Deportivo Cartagena 1–3 Rosario

Rosario beat Deportivo Cartagena 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán in San Ramón de Alajuela.