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Rosario vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Rosario
Rosario
FT
2 – 0
Barrio México
Barrio México
8/8/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 3Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rosario46%
×Draw24%
Barrio México29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario
1.64
Barrio México
1.25

Rosario creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

Rosario
1.91
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Rosario
1.09
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Rosario+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rosario or draw
71%
Rosario or Barrio México
76%
Draw or Barrio México
54%

Winning margin

Rosario wins by 2+
24%
Barrio México wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rosario 1+ goals
81%
Rosario 2+ goals
49%
Rosario 3+ goals
23%
Barrio México 1+ goals
71%
Barrio México 2+ goals
36%
Barrio México 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rosario (draw refunded)
61%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario attack 1.91 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.64

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Rosario defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosario scores more
46%
level
24%
Barrio México scores more
29%

Rosario at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Rosario 2–0 Barrio México

Rosario beat Barrio México 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.