Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barrio México vs Rosario — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
FT
1 – 1
Rosario
Rosario
9/29/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Barrio México63%
×Draw22%
Rosario15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
1.82
Rosario
0.76

Barrio México creates 139% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 12 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.07
Rosario
0.75

allows per match

Barrio México
0.77
Rosario
1.58

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
85%
Barrio México or Rosario
78%
Draw or Rosario
37%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
37%
Rosario wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
84%
Barrio México 2+ goals
54%
Barrio México 3+ goals
27%
Rosario 1+ goals
53%
Rosario 2+ goals
18%
Rosario 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
81%
Rosario (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Rosario away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.07 + Rosario defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rosario attack 0.75 + Barrio México defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Barrio México scores more
63%
level
22%
Rosario scores more
15%

Barrio México at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Barrio México 1–1 Rosario

Barrio México and Rosario drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.