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Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2024

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
Claudio Riaño 71'
Joaquín Pereyra 20'
Óscar Cardozo 50' (pen)
5/8/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rosario Central63%
×Draw24%
Libertad Asuncion13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.63
Libertad Asuncion
0.58

Rosario Central creates 181% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.71
Libertad Asuncion
0.73

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.43
Libertad Asuncion
1.55

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
87%
Rosario Central or Libertad Asuncion
76%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
37%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
35%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
80%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
48%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
22%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
44%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
12%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
83%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.71 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.73 + Rosario Central defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rosario Central scores more
63%
level
24%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
13%

Rosario Central at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
Maximiliano LoveraRosario CentralRosario Central · F
8.2

Match Events

12'
Blas Caceres
20'
Joaquín Pereyra↳ Maximiliano Lovera
46'
Luciano Recalde← Matías Caruzzo
46'
Antonio Bareiro← Ivan Franco
50'
Óscar CardozoPenalty
51'
Claudio Riaño← Germán Herrera
62'
Ivan Piris
69'
Washington Camacho← Néstor Ortigoza
71'
Claudio Riaño↳ Maximiliano Lovera
76'
Jorge Recalde← Adrián Martínez
80'
Washington Camacho
82'
Rodrigo Rivero← Paulo Da Silva
85'
Washington Camacho
85'
Washington Camacho

Possession

50%Rosario

Shots

8Rosario

Pass accuracy

50%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioLibertad
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots12
2Corners2
16Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target5
4Off Target7
4Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
483Total Passes468
388Accurate Passes368
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards–
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion

Rosario Central beat Libertad Asuncion 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 8, 2019.

Goals: Joaquín Pereyra (20'), Óscar Cardozo (50' pen), Claudio Riaño (71').

Rosario Central controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre in Rosario.