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Libertad Asuncion vs Rosario Central — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
E. Copetti 83'
4/15/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libertad Asuncion16%
×Draw28%
Rosario Central56%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
0.61
Rosario Central
1.39

Rosario Central creates 128% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.89
Rosario Central
1.33

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.44
Rosario Central
0.33

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Rosario Central+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–119%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
44%
Libertad Asuncion or Rosario Central
72%
Draw or Rosario Central
84%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
4%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
46%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
13%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
2%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
75%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
40%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
23%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.89 + Rosario Central defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.61

Rosario Central attack 1.33 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
16%
level
28%
Rosario Central scores more
56%

Rosario Central at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
A. CampuzanoLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · M
7.7

Match Events

7'
Álvaro Campuzano
11'
Estiven Villalba
33'
Agustín Sández
46'
I. Franco← R. Rojas
58'
A. Molinas← L. Sanabria
58'
E. Copetti← J. Fernandez
70'
P. Fernandez← A. Veliz
70'
A. Soto← A. Sandez
74'
G. Aguilar← F. Carrizo
76'
Pol Fernandez
83'
E. Copetti↳ E. Coronel
87'
F. Navarro← V. Pizarro
87'
C. Quintana← E. Coronel
88'
O. R. Vera← D. Viera
90+6'
Franco Ibarra

Possession

33%Libertad

Shots

8Libertad

Pass accuracy

45%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadRosario
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots14
0.33Expected Goals (xG)1.07
4Corners5
16Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots14
2On Target7
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
3Inside Box9
5Outside Box5
Passing
33%Possession67%
262Total Passes531
179Accurate Passes448
68%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
0.21Goals Prevented0.21
Discipline
16Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Rosario Central

Rosario Central beat Libertad Asuncion 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 15, 2026.

Goals: E. Copetti (83').

Rosario Central controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.