Rosario Central 2–0 Estudiantes L.P.

Rosario Central

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

J. Campaz 90'

C. Quintana 89'

5/10/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 8th FinalsEstadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Rosario Central42%

×Draw34%

Estudiantes L.P.24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.67

Rosario Central

0.98

Estudiantes L.P.

0.67

Rosario Central creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.04

creates per match

0.72

0.62

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Rosario Central

1.04

Estudiantes L.P.

0.72

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.62

Estudiantes L.P.

0.91

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more

Estudiantes L.P.+0.38scores more

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

76%

Rosario Central or Estudiantes L.P.

66%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

58%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

16%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

62%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

26%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

8%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

49%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

15%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

63%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.72 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rosario Central scores more

42%

level

34%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

24%

Rosario Central at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Quintana

Rosario Central · D

8.3

Match Events

16'

Joaquin Tobio Burgos

35'

Santiago Arzamendia

46'

S. Boselli← E. Meza

46'

G. Benedetti← S. Arzamendia

59'

G. Duarte← L. Giaccone

62'

Gastón Benedetti

63'

L. Piovi← Gabriel Neves

63'

69'

71'

74'

86'

86'

T. O'Connor← F. Ibarra

87'

Santiago Núñez

89'

C. Quintana↳ I. Malcorra

90+7'

Jaminton Campaz

90+10'

Facundo Farías

90'

J. Campaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosarioEstudiantes

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots12

2Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots12

8On Target2

9Off Target6

1Blocked4

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

453Total Passes363

360Accurate Passes270

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

6Fouls12

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1