Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 Rosario Central

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rosario Central

J. Sosa 29'

J. Campaz 43'

11/20/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.42%

×Draw30%

Rosario Central28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.90

Estudiantes L.P.

1.18

Rosario Central

0.90

Estudiantes L.P. creates 31% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.28

creates per match

0.91

0.88

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.28

Rosario Central

0.91

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.88

Rosario Central

1.08

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.03on par

Rosario Central-0.08on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

72%

Estudiantes L.P. or Rosario Central

70%

Draw or Rosario Central

58%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

18%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

69%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

33%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

12%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

59%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

23%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

60%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.88 · 12 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.28 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rosario Central attack 0.91 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

42%

level

30%

Rosario Central scores more

28%

Estudiantes L.P. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Sosa

Estudiantes L.P. · F

8.2

Match Events

29'

J. Sosa↳ A. Castillo Manyoma

43'

J. Campaz↳ E. Copetti

46'

T. Palacios← J. Burgos

52'

A. Solari← J. Campaz

60'

J. Altamirano← G. Neves

65'

Franco Ibarra

68'

L. Giaccone← M. Lovera

73'

75'

75'

79'

79'

A. Sández← A. Rodríguez

79'

M. Ruben← E. Copetti

80'

E. Coronel← D. Martínez

83'

B. Kociubinski← E. Pérez

83'

E. Cetré← A. Castillo Manyoma

90'

Santiago Ascacíbar

90+2'

Agustín Sández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesRosario

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots10

0.85Expected Goals (xG)0.59

1Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target2

3Off Target3

2Blocked5

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

602Total Passes468

519Accurate Passes377

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

1.35Goals Prevented1.35

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3