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Rosario Central vs Belgrano Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
S. Segovia 60'
D. Martínez 5'
R. Hernandes 64'
12/14/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 27Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Rosario Central43%
×Draw32%
Belgrano Cordoba25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.08
Belgrano Cordoba
0.76

Rosario Central creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.04
Belgrano Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.62
Belgrano Cordoba
1.11

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more
Belgrano Cordoba-0.10scores less

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
75%
Rosario Central or Belgrano Cordoba
68%
Draw or Belgrano Cordoba
57%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
17%
Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
66%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
29%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
10%
Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
53%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
18%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
63%
Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.89 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rosario Central scores more
43%
level
32%
Belgrano Cordoba scores more
25%

Rosario Central at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
G. DuarteRosario CentralRosario Central · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
D. Martínez↳ G. Duarte
22'
Maximiliano Lovera
27'
Marco RubénPenalty cancelled
29'
Franco Jara
33'
Gerónimo Heredia
35'
F. Lencioni← B. Reyna
39'
Gaspar DuarteGoal cancelled
45+3'
Facundo Lencioni
59'
R. Hernandes← F. Facello
60'
S. Segovia↳ G. Duarte
61'
Santiago Segovia
64'
R. Hernandes↳ N. Fernández
72'
M. Barbieri← M. Lovera
72'
E. Coronel← D. Martínez
76'
Juan Velázquez
80'
M. Suárez← F. Lencioni
80'
L. Menossi← G. Heredia
81'
K. Ortíz← S. Segovia
87'
E. Copetti← M. Martínez
87'
L. Giaccone← G. Duarte

Possession

50%Rosario

Shots

12Rosario

Pass accuracy

52%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioBelgrano
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots19
1.67Expected Goals (xG)1.24
5Corners11
5Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots19
4On Target4
7Off Target9
1Blocked6
7Inside Box16
5Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
337Total Passes325
269Accurate Passes245
80%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
-0.91Goals Prevented-0.91
Discipline
5Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Belgrano Cordoba

Rosario Central beat Belgrano Cordoba 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 14, 2024.

Goals: D. Martínez (5'), S. Segovia (60'), R. Hernandes (64').

Rosario Central controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.