Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 Rosario Central

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rosario Central

7/28/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 27Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba37%

×Draw31%

Rosario Central32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.94

Belgrano Cordoba

1.03

Rosario Central

0.94

Belgrano Cordoba creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

0.98

creates per match

0.91

0.97

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.98

Rosario Central

0.91

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.97

Rosario Central

1.08

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.02on par

Rosario Central-0.08on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

68%

Belgrano Cordoba or Rosario Central

69%

Draw or Rosario Central

63%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

14%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

64%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

28%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

9%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

61%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

24%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

53%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.98 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Rosario Central attack 0.91 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

37%

level

31%

Rosario Central scores more

32%

Belgrano Cordoba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Lo Celso

Rosario Central · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

I. Hesar← M. Miño

21'

F. Lo Celso← F. Mac Allister

39'

I. Cortez← D. Martínez

46'

F. Aguero← C. Quintana

54'

Tomas Alejandro Castro

56'

Ismael Cortez

61'

Ulises Sánchez

64'

L. Diarte← A. Ibacache

70'

F. Facello← J. Barinaga

70'

F. Jara← D. Barrea

71'

F. Lencioni← T. Castro

85'

L. Rodríguez← A. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgranoRosario

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots4

0.30Expected Goals (xG)0.18

3Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots4

2On Target1

9Off Target2

0Blocked1

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

329Total Passes355

269Accurate Passes274

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0