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Rops vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

Rops
Rops
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
8/25/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 21Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rops43%
×Draw28%
Lahti29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
1.31
Lahti
1.03

Rops creates 27% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 101 away

creates per match

Rops
1.07
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

Rops
1.12
Lahti
1.56

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rops or draw
71%
Rops or Lahti
72%
Draw or Lahti
57%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
20%
Lahti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
73%
Rops 2+ goals
38%
Rops 3+ goals
14%
Lahti 1+ goals
64%
Lahti 2+ goals
28%
Lahti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
59%
Lahti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.07 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lahti attack 0.93 + Rops defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rops scores more
43%
level
28%
Lahti scores more
29%

Rops at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rops vs Lahti

Rops beat Lahti 3-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi).