Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lahti vs Rops — Suomen Cup 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rops
Rops
2/15/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 5Mukkulan halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lahti43%
×Draw25%
Rops32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.56
Rops
1.30

Lahti creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.58
Rops
1.27

allows per match

Lahti
1.33
Rops
1.53

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
68%
Lahti or Rops
75%
Draw or Rops
57%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
22%
Rops wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
79%
Lahti 2+ goals
46%
Lahti 3+ goals
21%
Rops 1+ goals
73%
Rops 2+ goals
37%
Rops 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
58%
Rops (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Rops away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.58 + Rops defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rops attack 1.27 + Lahti defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lahti scores more
43%
level
25%
Rops scores more
32%

Lahti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Lahti 2–1 Rops

Lahti beat Rops 2-1 in Suomen Cup on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Mukkulan halli in Lahti.