Rops 3–2 KuPS: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Rops

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

KuPS

S. Ala 90+3'

N. Jokelainen 84'

M. Tamminen 80'

K. Katz 78' (OG)

I. Niskanen 19'

3/3/2019

Suomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Kajaanin Pallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rops16%

×Draw21%

KuPS63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RopsExpected goals in this matchKuPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

2.00

Rops

0.91

KuPS

2.00

KuPS creates 120% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

0.91

creates per match

1.91

2.09

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Rops

0.91

KuPS

1.91

allows per match

Rops

2.09

KuPS

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rops+0.00on par

KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

KuPS →

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rops or draw

37%

Rops or KuPS

79%

Draw or KuPS

84%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+

KuPS wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals

60%

Rops 2+ goals

23%

Rops 3+ goals

KuPS 1+ goals

86%

KuPS 2+ goals

59%

KuPS 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)

21%

KuPS (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 0.91 + KuPS defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

KuPS attack 1.91 + Rops defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rops scores more

16%

level

21%

KuPS scores more

63%

KuPS at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

I. Niskanen

62'

Agnaldo Moraes← J. Hyvärinen

70'

Jere Hiltunen← R. Ayarna

74'

T. Jyry← A. Purje

77'

S. Ala← T. Kada

78'

K. KatzOwn goal

79'

E. Rissanen← R. Karjalainen

80'

M. Tamminen

84'

N. Jokelainen

89'

R. Degerman← M. Tamminen

90+5'

E. Kantola← N. Jokelainen

90+3'

S. Ala

Rops

KuPS

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

Jokelaine

⚽

▼

Tamminen

Manager: T. Koskela

62'▲Agnaldo Moraes←▼J. Hyvärinen

77'▲S. Ala←▼T. Kada

89'▲R. Degerman←▼M. Tamminen

90+5'▲E. Kantola←▼N. Jokelainen

Rops substitutes

MoraesAlaDegermanKantolaKorhonen

Manager: J. Honkavaara

70'▲Jere Hiltunen←▼R. Ayarna

74'▲T. Jyry←▼A. Purje

79'▲E. Rissanen←▼R. Karjalainen

KuPS substitutes

HiltunenJyryRissanenVartiainenTöyräsMiettinenFələk

Match Recap: Rops vs KuPS

Rops beat KuPS 3-2 in Suomen Cup on March 3, 2019.

Goals: I. Niskanen (19'), K. Katz (78' o.g.), M. Tamminen (80'), N. Jokelainen (84'), S. Ala (90+3').

The match was played at Kajaanin Pallohalli in Kajaani.

Rops vs KuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rops vs KuPS