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KuPS vs Rops — Suomen Cup 2018

KuPS
KuPS
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rops
Rops
2/28/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 6Kuopiohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KuPS64%
×Draw21%
Rops15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
2.00
Rops
0.86

KuPS creates 133% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

KuPS
2.46
Rops
1.27

allows per match

KuPS
0.46
Rops
1.53

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
85%
KuPS or Rops
79%
Draw or Rops
36%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
39%
Rops wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
86%
KuPS 2+ goals
59%
KuPS 3+ goals
32%
Rops 1+ goals
58%
Rops 2+ goals
21%
Rops 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
81%
Rops (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Rops away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 2.46 + Rops defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rops attack 1.27 + KuPS defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

KuPS scores more
64%
level
21%
Rops scores more
15%

KuPS at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KuPS vs Rops

KuPS beat Rops 4-0 in Suomen Cup on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Kuopiohalli in Kuopio.