KuPS 2–2 Rops: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

KuPS

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rops

Rangel 83'

P. Pennanen 56'

S. Ala 90+4'

A. Sihvonen 15'

4/3/2019

Veikkausliiga · Round 1Savon Sanomat Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

KuPS57%

×Draw24%

Rops19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPSExpected goals in this matchRops

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.89

KuPS

1.72

Rops

0.89

KuPS creates 93% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 41 away

1.82

creates per match

0.88

0.89

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

KuPS

1.82

Rops

0.88

allows per match

KuPS

0.89

Rops

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par

Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

Rops →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

KuPS or draw

81%

KuPS or Rops

76%

Draw or Rops

43%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+

32%

Rops wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals

82%

KuPS 2+ goals

51%

KuPS 3+ goals

25%

Rops 1+ goals

59%

Rops 2+ goals

22%

Rops 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)

75%

Rops (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.89 · 122 matches

Rops away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.61 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.82 + Rops defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Rops attack 0.88 + KuPS defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KuPS scores more

57%

level

24%

Rops scores more

19%

KuPS at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

34'

46'

55'

56'

58'

64'

67'

71'

73'

77'

R. Karjalainen← T. Jyry

83'

Rangel

85'

M. Tamminen← M. Sissoko

88'

T. Kaukua← Sergio Llamas

90'

Petteri Pennanen

90+4'

S. Ala

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KuPSRops

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots6

5Corners2

16Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots6

5On Target3

3Off Target3

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

KuPS 2 – 2 Rops

KuPS and Rops drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on April 3, 2019.

Goals: A. Sihvonen (15'), P. Pennanen (56'), Rangel (83'), S. Ala (90+4').

KuPS controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Savon Sanomat Areena in Kuopio.

KuPS vs Rops — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KuPS 2 – 2 Rops