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Rops vs Kuopion Elo — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Rops
Rops
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
6/11/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 7Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rops63%
×Draw19%
Kuopion Elo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
2.41
Kuopion Elo
1.23

Rops creates 96% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rops
2.05
Kuopion Elo
1.27

allows per match

Rops
1.18
Kuopion Elo
2.77

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Kuopion Elo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rops or draw
82%
Rops or Kuopion Elo
81%
Draw or Kuopion Elo
37%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
41%
Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
91%
Rops 2+ goals
69%
Rops 3+ goals
43%
Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
71%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
35%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
78%
Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 2.05 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.41

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + Rops defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rops scores more
63%
level
19%
Kuopion Elo scores more
18%

Rops at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Rops 2–1 Kuopion Elo

Rops beat Kuopion Elo 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.