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Kuopion Elo vs Rops — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2026

Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Rops
Rops
9/3/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 17Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kuopion Elo45%
×Draw22%
Rops33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuopion Elo
1.96
Rops
1.65

Kuopion Elo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kuopion Elo
2.00
Rops
1.55

allows per match

Kuopion Elo
1.75
Rops
1.91

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw
67%
Kuopion Elo or Rops
78%
Draw or Rops
55%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
25%
Rops wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
86%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
58%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
31%
Rops 1+ goals
81%
Rops 2+ goals
49%
Rops 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
58%
Rops (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Rops away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 2.00 + Rops defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Rops attack 1.55 + Kuopion Elo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more
45%
level
22%
Rops scores more
33%

Kuopion Elo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kuopion Elo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuopion Elo vs Rops

Rops beat Kuopion Elo 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.