Rops 1–1 Ilves: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Rops

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ilves

M. Tamminen 88'

N. Skyttä 54'

7/21/2020

Veikkausliiga · Round 4Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rops35%

×Draw27%

Ilves39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RopsExpected goals in this matchIlves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

Rops

1.23

Ilves

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 119 away

1.07

creates per match

1.49

1.12

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Rops

1.07

Ilves

1.49

allows per match

Rops

1.12

Ilves

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rops+0.00on par

Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Ilves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rops or draw

61%

Rops or Ilves

73%

Draw or Ilves

65%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+

15%

Ilves wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals

71%

Rops 2+ goals

35%

Rops 3+ goals

13%

Ilves 1+ goals

73%

Ilves 2+ goals

38%

Ilves 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)

47%

Ilves (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Ilves away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.07 + Ilves defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ilves attack 1.49 + Rops defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rops scores more

35%

level

27%

Ilves scores more

39%

Ilves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

43'

54'

58'

58'

63'

70'

70'

R. Degerman← E. Banza

70'

I. Järvinen← N. Skyttä

78'

R. Degerman

82'

M. Tamminen

88'

E. Mömmö← L. Ala-Myllymäki

88'

M. Stjopin← T. Fofana

88'

M. Tamminen

89'

E. Mommo

90+6'

V. Pyyny

90+2'

S. Ala← D. Carr

Rops

Ilves

1

2

4

13

3

25

▼

Tendeng

10

▼

Ala-Mylly

5

Jair

23

⚽

▼

Skyttä

21

▼

Laine

26

▼

1

6

20

26

▼

5

15

8

19

25

▼

Carr

23

▼

Banza

21

⚽

Tamminen

Manager: V. Tauriainen

63'▲V. Pyyny←▼E. Kantola

70'▲R. Degerman←▼E. Banza

90+2'▲S. Ala←▼D. Carr

Rops substitutes

18Pyyny22Degerman17Ala14Muinonen27Olabisi28Luiro32Niemelä

Manager: J. Wiss

58'▲T. Siira←▼J. Laine

58'▲M. Almen←▼E. Tendeng

70'▲I. Järvinen←▼N. Skyttä

88'▲E. Mömmö←▼L. Ala-Myllymäki

88'▲M. Stjopin←▼T. Fofana

Ilves substitutes

14Siira15Almen8Järvinen19Mömmö27Stjopin32Riikonen

Veikkausliiga: Rops 1–1 Ilves

Rops and Ilves drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on July 21, 2020.

Goals: N. Skyttä (54'), M. Tamminen (88').

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.

Rops vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Veikkausliiga: Rops 1–1 Ilves