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Ilves vs Rops — Suomen Cup 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rops
Rops
2/1/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 2Pirkkahalli C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ilves52%
×Draw23%
Rops25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.83
Rops
1.20

Ilves creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ilves
2.13
Rops
1.27

allows per match

Ilves
1.13
Rops
1.53

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
75%
Ilves or Rops
77%
Draw or Rops
48%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
29%
Rops wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
84%
Ilves 2+ goals
54%
Ilves 3+ goals
28%
Rops 1+ goals
70%
Rops 2+ goals
34%
Rops 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
68%
Rops (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Rops away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 2.13 + Rops defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rops attack 1.27 + Ilves defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ilves scores more
52%
level
23%
Rops scores more
25%

Ilves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Ilves 3–1 Rops

Ilves beat Rops 3-1 in Suomen Cup on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Pirkkahalli C in Tampere.