Rops 2–2 Haka: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Rops

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Haka

M. Tamminen 27'

T. Kaukua 26'

N. Friberg 66'

E. Markkanen 19'

7/17/2020

Veikkausliiga · Round 3Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Rops40%

×Draw27%

Haka33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RopsExpected goals in this matchHaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.19

Rops

1.34

Haka

1.19

Rops creates 13% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 81 away

1.10

creates per match

1.25

1.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Rops

1.10

Haka

1.25

allows per match

Rops

1.13

Haka

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rops+0.00on par

Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Haka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rops or draw

67%

Rops or Haka

73%

Draw or Haka

60%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+

18%

Haka wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals

74%

Rops 2+ goals

39%

Rops 3+ goals

15%

Haka 1+ goals

70%

Haka 2+ goals

33%

Haka 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)

55%

Haka (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Haka away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.10 + Haka defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34

Haka attack 1.25 + Rops defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rops scores more

40%

level

27%

Haka scores more

33%

Rops at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

26'

27'

30'

35'

51'

58'

66'

74'

81'

84'

S. Ala← D. Carr

85'

O. Malolo

90'

R. Degerman← V. Pyyny

90+2'

J. Thusberg← A. Hilska

Rops

Haka

1

Hartmann

3

⚽

20

2

5

8

▼

Kamara

14

Popovits

7

▼

Hilska

10

Chidi

11

⚽

Markkanen

23

▼

1

6

20

26

15

8

19

⚽

Kaukua

9

▼

Gyasi

25

▼

Carr

18

▼

Pyyny

21

⚽

Tamminen

Manager: V. Tauriainen

51'▲J. Luiro←▼R. Gyasi

84'▲S. Ala←▼D. Carr

90'▲R. Degerman←▼V. Pyyny

Rops substitutes

28Luiro17Ala22Degerman12Rantala27Olabisi

Manager: T. Tainio

30'▲J. Bushue←▼S. Ojala

74'▲T. Purme←▼M. Kamara

90+2'▲J. Thusberg←▼A. Hilska

Haka substitutes

6Bushue15Purme19Thusberg17Lehtojuuri18Saarinen24Antinaho30Immonen

Match Recap: Rops vs Haka

Rops and Haka drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on July 17, 2020.

Goals: E. Markkanen (19'), T. Kaukua (26'), M. Tamminen (27'), N. Friberg (66').

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.

Rops vs Haka — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rops vs Haka