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Rops vs Haka — Suomen Cup 2018

Rops
Rops
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haka
Haka
2/9/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Heinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rops12%
×Draw18%
Haka70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
0.85
Haka
2.29

Haka creates 169% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

creates per match

Rops
0.91
Haka
2.48

allows per match

Rops
2.09
Haka
0.80

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rops or draw
30%
Rops or Haka
82%
Draw or Haka
88%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
4%
Haka wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
57%
Rops 2+ goals
21%
Rops 3+ goals
5%
Haka 1+ goals
90%
Haka 2+ goals
66%
Haka 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
15%
Haka (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Haka away — creates 2.48, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 0.91 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Haka attack 2.48 + Rops defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rops scores more
12%
level
18%
Haka scores more
70%

Haka at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rops 0 – 1 Haka

Haka beat Rops 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.