RoPS II 4–0 PS Kemi Kings: Result & Stats

RoPS II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

PS Kemi Kings

9/13/2020

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 12Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

RoPS II68%

×Draw18%

PS Kemi Kings15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RoPS IIExpected goals in this matchPS Kemi Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.08

RoPS II

2.48

PS Kemi Kings

1.08

RoPS II creates 130% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

2.35

creates per match

0.85

1.32

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

RoPS II

2.35

PS Kemi Kings

0.85

allows per match

RoPS II

1.32

PS Kemi Kings

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RoPS II+0.00on par

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RoPS II ↓

PS Kemi Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

RoPS II or draw

85%

RoPS II or PS Kemi Kings

82%

Draw or PS Kemi Kings

32%

Winning margin

RoPS II wins by 2+

45%

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

RoPS II 1+ goals

92%

RoPS II 2+ goals

70%

RoPS II 3+ goals

44%

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

66%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

29%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

RoPS II (draw refunded)

82%

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RoPS II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RoPS II attack 2.35 + PS Kemi Kings defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.48

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.85 + RoPS II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

RoPS II scores more

68%

level

18%

PS Kemi Kings scores more

15%

RoPS II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff