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PS Kemi Kings vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RoPS II
RoPS II
S. Jovovic 77'
E. Oikarinen 17'
L. Kuittinen 76'
11/7/2020Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 17Sauvosaaren Takakenttä N

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

PS Kemi Kings33%
×Draw22%
RoPS II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PS Kemi Kings
1.65
RoPS II
1.97

RoPS II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings
1.63
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings
2.21
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw
55%
PS Kemi Kings or RoPS II
78%
Draw or RoPS II
67%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
16%
RoPS II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
81%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
49%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
23%
RoPS II 1+ goals
86%
RoPS II 2+ goals
58%
RoPS II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
42%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 1.63 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

RoPS II attack 1.73 + PS Kemi Kings defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more
33%
level
22%
RoPS II scores more
45%

RoPS II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
E. Oikarinen
40'
J. Alatalo← J. Alatalo
58'
L. Kuittinen
67'
V. Pyyny← S. Ala-Iso
67'
S. Salmirinne← S. Salmirinne
76'
L. Kuittinen
77'
S. Jovovic
83'
A. Salmi← A. Salmi
83'
J. Lansipaa← J. Lansipaa
83'
R. Degerman← T. Leppakangas
86'
S. Kalasniemi← S. Kalasniemi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: PS Kemi Kings 2–1 RoPS II

PS Kemi Kings beat RoPS II 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on November 7, 2020.

Goals: E. Oikarinen (17'), L. Kuittinen (76'), S. Jovovic (77').

The match was played at Sauvosaaren Takakenttä N in Kemi.