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Romania vs Sweden — Euro Championship 2024

Romania
Romania
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sweden
Sweden
R. Quaison 34'
M. Berg 18'
11/15/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Romania31%
×Draw25%
Sweden44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania
1.27
Sweden
1.54

Sweden creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Romania
1.43
Sweden
1.78

allows per match

Romania
1.29
Sweden
1.11

finishing

Romania+0.00on par
Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Sweden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Romania or draw
56%
Romania or Sweden
75%
Draw or Sweden
69%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+
13%
Sweden wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals
72%
Romania 2+ goals
36%
Romania 3+ goals
14%
Sweden 1+ goals
79%
Sweden 2+ goals
45%
Sweden 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)
42%
Sweden (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.43 + Sweden defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sweden attack 1.78 + Romania defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Romania scores more
31%
level
25%
Sweden scores more
44%

Sweden at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. BergSwedenSweden · F
8.3

Match Events

18'
M. Berg↳ E. Forsberg
23'
Nicolae Stanciu
34'
R. Quaison↳ M. Berg
46'
I. Hagi← C. Deac
50'
Victor Lindelöf
55'
Nicușor Bancu
57'
F. Coman← C. Keșerü
69'
G. Svensson← S. Larsson
73'
D. Alibec← N. Stanciu
78'
A. Isak← M. Berg

Possession

53%Romania

Shots

14Romania

Pass accuracy

51%Romania

Statistics

RomaniaSweden
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots10
4Corners6
15Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots10
3On Target3
8Off Target5
3Blocked2
3Inside Box8
11Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
464Total Passes405
359Accurate Passes294
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Euro Championship: Romania 0–2 Sweden

Sweden beat Romania 2-0 in Euro Championship on November 15, 2019.

Goals: M. Berg (18'), R. Quaison (34').

Romania controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.