Romania 1–0 Sweden: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Romania

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sweden

D. Rotariu 57'

3/27/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Romania48%

×Draw25%

Sweden27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchSweden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

Romania

1.59

Sweden

1.11

Romania creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Romania

1.38

Sweden

1.00

allows per match

Romania

1.23

Sweden

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Sweden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Romania or draw

73%

Romania or Sweden

75%

Draw or Sweden

52%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

25%

Sweden wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

80%

Romania 2+ goals

47%

Romania 3+ goals

21%

Sweden 1+ goals

67%

Sweden 2+ goals

30%

Sweden 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

65%

Sweden (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.38 + Sweden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sweden attack 1.00 + Romania defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Romania scores more

48%

level

25%

Sweden scores more

27%

Romania at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Martin Olsson

54'

D. Rotariu← A. Mitriță

57'

D. Rotariu↳ A. Chipciu

61'

G. Grozav← A. Chipciu

63'

C. Keșerü← G. Țucudean

65'

Jimmy Durmaz

70'

P. Anton← R. Marin

70'

O. Toivonen← I. Thelin

76'

Claudiu Keșerü

83'

I. Nedelcearu← D. Grigore

83'

V. Claesson← J. Durmaz

87'

D. Man← N. Stanciu

87'

S. Larsson← A. Fransson

87'

M. Berg← J. Guidetti

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RomaniaSweden

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots5

5Corners6

16Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots5

2On Target1

5Off Target4

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2