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Romania vs Poland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Romania
Romania
Preview
19:45
Poland
Poland
11/14/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 5
Big match
62%
Romania
model favours
62%22%17%

Top-of-the-table clash — Romania 1 vs Poland 4

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Romania62%
×Draw22%
Poland17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania
1.92
Poland
0.88

Romania creates 118% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Romania
1.83
Poland
1.09

allows per match

Romania
0.67
Poland
2.00

finishing

Romania+0.00on par
Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Poland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Romania or draw
83%
Romania or Poland
78%
Draw or Poland
38%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+
37%
Poland wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals
85%
Romania 2+ goals
57%
Romania 3+ goals
30%
Poland 1+ goals
59%
Poland 2+ goals
22%
Poland 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)
79%
Poland (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Poland away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.83 + Poland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Poland attack 1.09 + Romania defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Romania scores more
62%
level
22%
Poland scores more
17%

Romania at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Romania
Balanced
Poland
Direct / counter-attacking
53%Possession42%
80%Pass accuracy82%
12.9ShotsBiggest gap9.6
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RomaniaPoland

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Romania
WDLLW
Poland
DLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Romania vs Poland — Match Preview

Romania face Poland on November 14, 2026 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.