Romania 0–3 Poland: Result & Stats | League #32

Romania

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Poland

R. Lewandowski 90+1' (pen), 82'

K. Grosicki 11'

11/11/2016

League #32 · 1st Round - 4Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Romania26%

×Draw28%

Poland46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.35

Romania

0.93

Poland

1.35

Poland creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

0.86

creates per match

2.00

0.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Romania

0.86

Poland

2.00

allows per match

Romania

0.71

Poland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Romania or draw

54%

Romania or Poland

72%

Draw or Poland

74%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

9%

Poland wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

61%

Romania 2+ goals

24%

Romania 3+ goals

7%

Poland 1+ goals

74%

Poland 2+ goals

39%

Poland 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

36%

Poland (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Poland away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 0.86 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Poland attack 2.00 + Romania defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Romania scores more

26%

level

28%

Poland scores more

46%

Poland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Cristian Săpunaru

11'

K. Grosicki↳ A. Jędrzejczyk

46'

A. Prepeliță← O. Hoban

46'

F. Andone← A. Popa

52'

Romario Benzar

70'

K. Mączyński← K. Linetty

79'

Florin Andone

80'

Ł. Teodorczyk← P. Zieliński

82'

C. Keșerü← N. Stanciu

82'

R. Lewandowski↳ Ł. Teodorczyk

89'

S. Peszko← K. Grosicki

90+1'

R. LewandowskiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RomaniaPoland

Overview

47%Possession53%

6Total Shots11

8Corners6

16Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots11

4On Target7

2Off Target4

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0