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Poland vs Romania — League #32 2026

Poland
Poland
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Romania
Romania
R. Lewandowski 62' (pen), 57', 29' (pen)
B. Stancu 77'
6/10/2017League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 6Stadion Narodowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poland56%
×Draw23%
Romania21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland
1.79
Romania
0.98

Poland creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Poland
2.00
Romania
1.29

allows per match

Poland
0.67
Romania
1.57

finishing

Poland+0.00on par
Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Romania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Poland or draw
79%
Poland or Romania
77%
Draw or Romania
44%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+
32%
Romania wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals
83%
Poland 2+ goals
53%
Poland 3+ goals
26%
Romania 1+ goals
62%
Romania 2+ goals
26%
Romania 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)
73%
Romania (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Romania away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 2.00 + Romania defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Romania attack 1.29 + Poland defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Poland scores more
56%
level
23%
Romania scores more
21%

Poland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. LewandowskiPolandPoland · F
9.2

Match Events

28'
Cristian Săpunaru
29'
R. LewandowskiPenalty
44'
G. Krychowiak← K. Mączyński
57'
R. Lewandowski↳ P. Zieliński
60'
G. Grozav← I. Latovlevici
60'
N. Stanciu← A. Chipciu
62'
R. LewandowskiPenalty
72'
A. Milik← K. Linetty
77'
B. Stancu↳ R. Marin
79'
S. Hanca← R. Marin
81'
Ł. Teodorczyk← P. Zieliński

Possession

57%Poland

Shots

9Poland

Pass accuracy

51%Poland

Statistics

PolandRomania
Overview
57%Possession43%
9Total Shots11
4Corners4
11Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots11
4On Target2
3Off Target8
2Blocked1
8Inside Box5
1Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
547Total Passes381
457Accurate Passes307
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Poland vs Romania

Poland beat Romania 3-1 in League #32 on June 10, 2017.

Goals: R. Lewandowski (29' pen, 57', 62' pen), B. Stancu (77').

Poland controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Narodowy in Warszawa.