Romania 0–0 Iceland: Result & Stats | League #32

Romania

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland

11/11/2021

League #32 · Group Stage - 9Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Romania36%

×Draw33%

Iceland31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.85

Romania

0.93

Iceland

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.86

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Romania

0.86

Iceland

1.00

allows per match

Romania

0.71

Iceland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Romania or draw

69%

Romania or Iceland

67%

Draw or Iceland

64%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

13%

Iceland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

61%

Romania 2+ goals

24%

Romania 3+ goals

7%

Iceland 1+ goals

57%

Iceland 2+ goals

21%

Iceland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

53%

Iceland (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Iceland away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 0.86 + Iceland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Iceland attack 1.00 + Romania defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Romania scores more

36%

level

33%

Iceland scores more

31%

Romania at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

E. Ólafsson

Iceland · G

8.6

Match Events

15'

G. Þórarinsson← A. Skúlason

45+1'

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson

59'

Andrei Rațiu

68'

A. Ivan← D. Alibec

68'

N. Bancu← A. Toșca

68'

O. Moruțan← N. Stanciu

74'

A. Guðjohnsen← S. Guðjohnsen

74'

Þ. Helgason← S. Þórðarson

77'

A. Maxim← F. Tănase

86'

G. Puşcaş← A. Cicâldău

90+1'

A. Þrándarson← Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson

90'

M. Ellertsson← A. Guðmundsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaIceland

Overview

63%Possession37%

23Total Shots8

11Corners6

6Fouls7

Shots

23Total Shots8

7On Target1

5Off Target4

11Blocked3

12Inside Box6

11Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

551Total Passes310

466Accurate Passes222

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

6Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3