Iceland 2–1 Romania: Result & Stats

Iceland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Romania

G. Sigurdsson 35', 16'

A. Maxim 63' (pen)

10/8/2020

Euro Championship · Qualifying Play-offs Path A - Semi-FinalsLaugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Iceland54%

×Draw24%

Romania22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IcelandExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.00

Iceland

1.71

Romania

1.00

Iceland creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.50

0.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Iceland

1.67

Romania

1.50

allows per match

Iceland

0.50

Romania

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Iceland or draw

78%

Iceland or Romania

76%

Draw or Romania

46%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+

30%

Romania wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals

82%

Iceland 2+ goals

51%

Iceland 3+ goals

24%

Romania 1+ goals

63%

Romania 2+ goals

26%

Romania 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)

71%

Romania (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Romania away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.67 + Romania defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Romania attack 1.50 + Iceland defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Iceland scores more

54%

level

24%

Romania scores more

22%

Iceland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Gylfi Sigurðsson

Iceland · F

8.9

Match Events

16'

G. Sigurdsson↳ J. Gudmundsson

35'

G. Sigurdsson↳ A. Finnbogason

36'

A. Maxim

46'

C. Deac← G. Iancu

46'

D. Alibec← G. Puscas

46'

A. I. Mitrita← I. Hagi

62'

R. Sigurdsson

63'

A. MaximPenalty

75'

A. Finnbogason← K. Sigthorsson

80'

A. Maxim← C. Keseru

83'

J. Gudmundsson← R. Sigurjonsson

86'

K. Arnason← S. Ingason

87'

N. Stanciu← A. Cicaldau

90+5'

G. Iancu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IcelandRomania

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots7

4Corners6

10Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target1

4Off Target2

1Blocked4

3Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

313Total Passes484

224Accurate Passes379

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0