Romania 0–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Result & Stats

Romania

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bosnia & Herzegovina

A. Gigovic 14'

3/21/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 1Arena Nationala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Romania34%

×Draw30%

Bosnia & Herzegovina37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchBosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.10

Romania

1.05

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

0.86

creates per match

1.50

0.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Romania

0.86

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.50

allows per match

Romania

0.71

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Romania or draw

63%

Romania or Bosnia & Herzegovina

70%

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

66%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

13%

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

65%

Romania 2+ goals

28%

Romania 3+ goals

9%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

67%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

30%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

48%

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 0.86 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.50 + Romania defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Romania scores more

34%

level

30%

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

37%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Stanciu

Romania · M

7.6

Match Events

14'

A. Gigovic↳ S. Kolasinac

17'

42'

46'

46'

54'

Ianis HagiPenalty cancelled

55'

62'

63'

65'

69'

69'

A. Sut← M. Marin

74'

A. Mitrita← R. Marin

77'

D. Burnic← B. Tahirovic

77'

80'

80'

81'

87'

E. Bicakcic← A. Malic

90+6'

Ianis Hagi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaBosnia

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots5

5Corners1

14Fouls25

Shots

15Total Shots5

3On Target1

7Off Target2

5Blocked2

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box0

Passing

66%Possession34%

577Total Passes303

491Accurate Passes211

85%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls25

5Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3