Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–1 Romania: Result & Stats

Bosnia & Herzegovina

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Romania

H. Tabakovic 90'

E. Bajraktarevic 80'

E. Dzeko 49'

D. Birligea 17'

11/15/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 9Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina40%

×Draw25%

Romania34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia & HerzegovinaExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.31

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.45

Romania

1.31

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.29

1.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.33

Romania

1.29

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.33

Romania

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw

66%

Bosnia & Herzegovina or Romania

75%

Draw or Romania

60%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

19%

Romania wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

77%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

42%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

18%

Romania 1+ goals

73%

Romania 2+ goals

38%

Romania 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

54%

Romania (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Romania away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.33 + Romania defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Romania attack 1.29 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

40%

level

25%

Romania scores more

34%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Bajraktarevic

Bosnia & Herzegovina · M

7.7

Match Events

6'

Nikola Katić

17'

D. Birligea↳ V. Mihaila

36'

Amar Dedić

44'

Tarik Muharemović

45+1'

Bogdan Racovițan

46'

H. Tabakovic← S. Bazdar

46'

K. Alajbegovic← A. Malic

49'

E. Dzeko

64'

Dženis Burnić

65'

D. Dragus← D. Birligea

67'

Denis Drăguş

70'

I. Basic← D. Burnic

75'

Edin Džeko

75'

D. Miculescu← I. Hagi

75'

R. Marin← V. Dragomir

80'

E. Bajraktarevic↳ B. Tahirovic

83'

A. Hadziahmetovic← B. Tahirovic

90+2'

Dennis Man

90'

A. Gigovic← E. Dzeko

90+3'

F. Tanase← D. Man

90'

H. Tabakovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BosniaRomania

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots9

1.75Expected Goals (xG)1.18

4Corners1

15Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target3

8Off Target5

4Blocked1

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

491Total Passes353

413Accurate Passes261

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls16

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania

Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Romania 3-1 in League #32 on November 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Birligea (17'), E. Dzeko (49'), E. Bajraktarevic (80'), H. Tabakovic (90').

Bosnia & Herzegovina controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Bilino Polje in Zenica.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania — League #32 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania