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Roma U19 vs Atalanta U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Roma U19
Roma U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atalanta U19
Atalanta U19
3/13/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 24Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Roma U1948%
×Draw23%
Atalanta U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U19
1.79
Atalanta U19
1.36

Roma U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Roma U19
2.10
Atalanta U19
1.66

allows per match

Roma U19
1.06
Atalanta U19
1.49

finishing

Roma U19+0.00on par
Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U19 ↓

Atalanta U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Roma U19 or draw
71%
Roma U19 or Atalanta U19
77%
Draw or Atalanta U19
52%

Winning margin

Roma U19 wins by 2+
26%
Atalanta U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Roma U19 1+ goals
83%
Roma U19 2+ goals
53%
Roma U19 3+ goals
26%
Atalanta U19 1+ goals
74%
Atalanta U19 2+ goals
39%
Atalanta U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Roma U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Atalanta U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U19 attack 2.10 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atalanta U19 attack 1.66 + Roma U19 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Roma U19 scores more
48%
level
23%
Atalanta U19 scores more
29%

Roma U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Roma U19 2–1 Atalanta U19

Roma U19 beat Atalanta U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Tre Fontane in Roma.