Atalanta U19 1–4 Roma U19: Result & Stats

Atalanta U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Roma U19

8/30/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Centro Sportivo Bortolotti 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Atalanta U1938%

×Draw23%

Roma U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atalanta U19Expected goals in this matchRoma U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.69

Atalanta U19

1.65

Roma U19

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

1.86

creates per match

1.93

1.45

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Atalanta U19

1.86

Roma U19

1.93

allows per match

Atalanta U19

1.45

Roma U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Roma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U19 ↓

Roma U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Atalanta U19 or draw

61%

Atalanta U19 or Roma U19

77%

Draw or Roma U19

62%

Winning margin

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

19%

Roma U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

81%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

49%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

23%

Roma U19 1+ goals

82%

Roma U19 2+ goals

50%

Roma U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Roma U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Roma U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U19 attack 1.86 + Roma U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Roma U19 attack 1.93 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atalanta U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

Roma U19 scores more

39%

Roma U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff