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Rohožník vs Petržalka — 2. liga 2019

Rohožník
Rohožník
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Petržalka
Petržalka
3/27/20222. liga2. liga · Round 22Štadión FC Rohožník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rohožník30%
×Draw25%
Petržalka46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rohožník
1.23
Petržalka
1.59

Petržalka creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

Rohožník
1.00
Petržalka
1.26

allows per match

Rohožník
1.93
Petržalka
1.45

finishing

Rohožník+0.00on par
Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rohožník ↓

Petržalka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rohožník or draw
54%
Rohožník or Petržalka
75%
Draw or Petržalka
70%

Winning margin

Rohožník wins by 2+
12%
Petržalka wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rohožník 1+ goals
71%
Rohožník 2+ goals
35%
Rohožník 3+ goals
13%
Petržalka 1+ goals
80%
Petržalka 2+ goals
47%
Petržalka 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rohožník (draw refunded)
39%
Petržalka (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rohožník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.45 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Petržalka defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Petržalka attack 1.26 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rohožník scores more
30%
level
25%
Petržalka scores more
46%

Petržalka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rohožník vs Petržalka

Rohožník and Petržalka drew 1-1 in 2. liga on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FC Rohožník in Rohožník.