Petržalka 4–1 Rohožník: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Petržalka

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rohožník

S. Kozák 89'

B. Turčák 54', 38'

J. Hronec 34'

A. Horvát 49'

8/18/2021

2. liga · Round 7Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Petržalka56%

×Draw23%

Rohožník22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetržalkaExpected goals in this matchRohožník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.09

Petržalka

1.88

Rohožník

1.09

Petržalka creates 72% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 15 away

1.82

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Petržalka

1.82

Rohožník

1.00

allows per match

Petržalka

1.18

Rohožník

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par

Rohožník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Rohožník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw

78%

Petržalka or Rohožník

77%

Draw or Rohožník

44%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+

32%

Rohožník wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals

85%

Petržalka 2+ goals

56%

Petržalka 3+ goals

29%

Rohožník 1+ goals

66%

Rohožník 2+ goals

30%

Rohožník 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)

72%

Rohožník (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Rohožník away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.82 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Petržalka scores more

56%

level

23%

Rohožník scores more

22%

Petržalka at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

38'

46'

46'

49'

54'

62'

62'

62'

V. Sliacky← B. Spáčil

70'

74'

74'

78'

78'

89'

Petržalka

Rohožník

1

27

8

97

2

4

6

5

▼

Škuta

12

⚽

▼

Horvát

11

▼

Bekö

23

▼

Meliš

1

Shevchuk

15

Nemec

26

⚽

Kozák

13

Kohút

10

⚽2

▼

Turčák

7

⚽

▼

Hronec

20

Obročník

93

Gašparovi

14

▼

Mihálek

21

▼

Spáčil

9

▼

Kelemen

Manager: M. Auxt

62'▲E. Hurný←▼J. Hronec

62'▲V. Sliacky←▼B. Spáčil

70'▲H. Harba←▼M. Kelemen

78'▲P. Danek←▼B. Turčák

78'▲M. Kuník←▼K. Mihálek

Petržalka substitutes

77Hurný79Sliacky29Harba11Danek27Kuník8Štefanec16Rédeky25Nagy99Sokol

Manager: S. Németh

46'▲J. Kiss←▼S. Škuta

46'▲M. Ščepka←▼D. Meliš

74'▲F. Tomovič←▼R. Bekö

74'▲P. Fila←▼A. Horvát

Rohožník substitutes

13Kiss18Ščepka10Tomovič14Fila19Milota20Žilinský21Herman32Kolena89Mohorko