Rohožník 1–1 Partizán Bardejov: Result & Stats

Rohožník

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Partizán Bardejov

10/3/2021

2. liga · Round 11Štadión FC Rohožník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rohožník39%

×Draw25%

Partizán Bardejov36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RohožníkExpected goals in this matchPartizán Bardejov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.38

Rohožník

1.44

Partizán Bardejov

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

1.93

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Rohožník

1.00

Partizán Bardejov

0.82

allows per match

Rohožník

1.93

Partizán Bardejov

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rohožník+0.00on par

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rohožník ↓

Partizán Bardejov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rohožník or draw

64%

Rohožník or Partizán Bardejov

75%

Draw or Partizán Bardejov

61%

Winning margin

Rohožník wins by 2+

18%

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rohožník 1+ goals

76%

Rohožník 2+ goals

42%

Rohožník 3+ goals

18%

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals

75%

Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals

40%

Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rohožník (draw refunded)

52%

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rohožník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Partizán Bardejov attack 0.82 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rohožník scores more

39%

level

25%

Partizán Bardejov scores more

36%

Rohožník at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rohožník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff