Partizán Bardejov 2–3 Rohožník: Result & Stats

Partizán Bardejov

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Rohožník

4/23/2022

2. liga · Round 26Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Partizán Bardejov46%

×Draw26%

Rohožník28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizán BardejovExpected goals in this matchRohožník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Partizán Bardejov

1.50

Rohožník

1.10

Partizán Bardejov creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.08

Rohožník

1.00

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.21

Rohožník

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Rohožník+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Rohožník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw

72%

Partizán Bardejov or Rohožník

74%

Draw or Rohožník

54%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+

23%

Rohožník wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals

78%

Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals

44%

Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals

19%

Rohožník 1+ goals

67%

Rohožník 2+ goals

30%

Rohožník 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)

63%

Rohožník (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Rohožník away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.08 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more

46%

level

26%

Rohožník scores more

28%

Partizán Bardejov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff