Rohožník 2–1 Námestovo: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Rohožník

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Námestovo

10/24/2021

2. liga · Round 14Štadión FC Rohožník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rohožník60%

×Draw20%

Námestovo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RohožníkExpected goals in this matchNámestovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.26

Rohožník

2.30

Námestovo

1.26

Rohožník creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

0.60

1.93

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Rohožník

1.00

Námestovo

0.60

allows per match

Rohožník

1.93

Námestovo

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rohožník+0.00on par

Námestovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rohožník ↓

Námestovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Rohožník or draw

80%

Rohožník or Námestovo

80%

Draw or Námestovo

40%

Winning margin

Rohožník wins by 2+

38%

Námestovo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rohožník 1+ goals

90%

Rohožník 2+ goals

67%

Rohožník 3+ goals

40%

Námestovo 1+ goals

72%

Námestovo 2+ goals

36%

Námestovo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rohožník (draw refunded)

75%

Námestovo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rohožník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Námestovo away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Námestovo defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Námestovo attack 0.60 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rohožník scores more

60%

level

20%

Námestovo scores more

20%

Rohožník at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rohožník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff