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Námestovo vs Rohožník — 2. liga 2019

Námestovo
Námestovo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rohožník
Rohožník
5/13/20222. liga2. liga · Round 29Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Námestovo31%
×Draw25%
Rohožník44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Námestovo
1.30
Rohožník
1.60

Rohožník creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Námestovo
0.67
Rohožník
1.00

allows per match

Námestovo
2.20
Rohožník
1.93

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par
Rohožník+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Rohožník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw
56%
Námestovo or Rohožník
75%
Draw or Rohožník
69%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+
13%
Rohožník wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals
73%
Námestovo 2+ goals
37%
Námestovo 3+ goals
14%
Rohožník 1+ goals
80%
Rohožník 2+ goals
47%
Rohožník 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)
41%
Rohožník (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Rohožník away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 0.67 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Námestovo defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Námestovo scores more
31%
level
25%
Rohožník scores more
44%

Rohožník at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rohožník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Námestovo 0–1 Rohožník

Rohožník beat Námestovo 1-0 in 2. liga on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Námestovo in Námestovo.