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Rohožník vs FK Košice — 2. liga 2019

Rohožník
Rohožník
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
FK Košice
FK Košice
8/8/20212. liga2. liga · Round 3Štadión FC Rohožník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rohožník23%
×Draw23%
FK Košice54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rohožník
1.09
FK Košice
1.79

FK Košice creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

creates per match

Rohožník
1.00
FK Košice
1.66

allows per match

Rohožník
1.93
FK Košice
1.19

finishing

Rohožník+0.00on par
FK Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rohožník ↓

FK Košice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rohožník or draw
46%
Rohožník or FK Košice
77%
Draw or FK Košice
77%

Winning margin

Rohožník wins by 2+
9%
FK Košice wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Rohožník 1+ goals
66%
Rohožník 2+ goals
30%
Rohožník 3+ goals
10%
FK Košice 1+ goals
83%
FK Košice 2+ goals
53%
FK Košice 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rohožník (draw refunded)
30%
FK Košice (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rohožník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

FK Košice away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rohožník attack 1.00 + FK Košice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

FK Košice attack 1.66 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rohožník scores more
23%
level
23%
FK Košice scores more
54%

FK Košice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Rohožník 1–7 FK Košice

FK Košice beat Rohožník 7-1 in 2. liga on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FC Rohožník in Rohožník.