FK Košice 4–0 Rohožník: Result & Stats | 2. liga

FK Košice

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rohožník

2/25/2022

2. liga · Round 18Košická futbalová aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FK Košice63%

×Draw21%

Rohožník16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KošiceExpected goals in this matchRohožník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.90

FK Košice

2.00

Rohožník

0.90

FK Košice creates 122% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

2.08

creates per match

1.00

0.79

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

FK Košice

2.08

Rohožník

1.00

allows per match

FK Košice

0.79

Rohožník

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Košice+0.00on par

Rohožník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Košice ↓

Rohožník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Košice or draw

84%

FK Košice or Rohožník

79%

Draw or Rohožník

37%

Winning margin

FK Košice wins by 2+

38%

Rohožník wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Košice 1+ goals

86%

FK Košice 2+ goals

59%

FK Košice 3+ goals

32%

Rohožník 1+ goals

59%

Rohožník 2+ goals

23%

Rohožník 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Košice (draw refunded)

79%

Rohožník (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Košice at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.79 · 52 matches

Rohožník away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Košice attack 2.08 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rohožník attack 1.00 + FK Košice defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FK Košice scores more

63%

level

21%

Rohožník scores more

16%

FK Košice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FK Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff