Rohožník 1–3 Dukla Banská Bystrica: Result & Stats

Rohožník

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Dukla Banská Bystrica

5/20/2022

2. liga · Round 30Štadión FC Rohožník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rohožník20%

×Draw22%

Dukla Banská Bystrica57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RohožníkExpected goals in this matchDukla Banská Bystrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.88

Rohožník

1.02

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.88

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 55 away

1.00

creates per match

1.82

1.93

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Rohožník

1.00

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.82

allows per match

Rohožník

1.93

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rohožník+0.00on par

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rohožník ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rohožník or draw

43%

Rohožník or Dukla Banská Bystrica

78%

Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica

80%

Winning margin

Rohožník wins by 2+

7%

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Rohožník 1+ goals

64%

Rohožník 2+ goals

27%

Rohožník 3+ goals

8%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

85%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

56%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Rohožník (draw refunded)

26%

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rohožník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.82 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rohožník scores more

20%

level

22%

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

57%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff