Dukla Banská Bystrica 4–1 Rohožník: Result & Stats

Dukla Banská Bystrica

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Rohožník

D. Richtárech 75'

M. Pišoja 29'

R. Polievka 18'

J. Šulc 9'

M. Ščepka 52'

11/28/2021

2. liga · Round 15Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica66%

×Draw19%

Rohožník15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchRohožník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.00

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2.29

Rohožník

1.00

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 129% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

2.65

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2.65

Rohožník

1.00

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.00

Rohožník

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Rohožník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Rohožník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

85%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or Rohožník

81%

Draw or Rohožník

34%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

43%

Rohožník wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

90%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

66%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

40%

Rohožník 1+ goals

63%

Rohožník 2+ goals

26%

Rohožník 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

81%

Rohožník (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Rohožník away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 2.65 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.29

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

66%

level

19%

Rohožník scores more

15%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. Šulc

12'

Ľ. Willwéber← J. Šulc

18'

R. Polievka

29'

M. Pišoja

46'

M. Ščepka← A. Horvát

46'

J. Herman← V. Žilinský

52'

M. Ščepka

56'

L. Kojnok← M. Slaninka

62'

65'

75'

85'

87'

87'

87'

J. Uhrinčať← D. Richtárech

Dukla

Rohožník

1

5

97

13

4

24

14

12

▼

Horvát

20

▼

23

10

22

12

▼

Kupčík

5

▼

Slaninka

21

Migaľa

19

Prikryl

28

⚽

Pišoja

8

Jurčišin

10

▼

Ľupták

6

⚽

▼

Richtárec

11

⚽

▼

Šulc

17

⚽

Polievka

Manager: S. Varga

12'▲Ľ. Willwéber←▼J. Šulc

56'▲L. Kojnok←▼M. Slaninka

87'▲A. Červeň←▼Ľ. Kupčík

87'▲V. Tóth←▼B. Ľupták

87'▲J. Uhrinčať←▼D. Richtárech

Dukla Banská Bystrica substitutes

41Willwéber25Kojnok2Červeň4Tóth7Uhrinčať18Depetris23Nôta

Manager: S. Németh

46'▲M. Ščepka←▼A. Horvát

46'▲J. Herman←▼V. Žilinský

Rohožník substitutes

18Ščepka21Herman2Ambra6Privrel19Milota22Havlík89Mohorko7Prášek

2. liga: Dukla Banská Bystrica 4–1 Rohožník

Dukla Banská Bystrica beat Rohožník 4-1 in 2. liga on November 28, 2021.

Goals: J. Šulc (9'), R. Polievka (18'), M. Pišoja (29'), M. Ščepka (52'), D. Richtárech (75').

The match was played at Štadión SNP Štiavničky in Banská Bystrica.

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Rohožník — 2. liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. liga: Dukla Banská Bystrica 4–1 Rohožník