Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ROHDA Raalte vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ROHDA Raalte
ROHDA Raalte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
4/6/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 28Sportpark Tijenraan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

ROHDA Raalte53%
×Draw22%
Ajax Amateurs25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ROHDA Raalte
1.98
Ajax Amateurs
1.28

ROHDA Raalte creates 55% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

ROHDA Raalte
1.91
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

ROHDA Raalte
1.44
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

ROHDA Raalte+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ROHDA Raalte ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ROHDA Raalte or draw
75%
ROHDA Raalte or Ajax Amateurs
78%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
47%

Winning margin

ROHDA Raalte wins by 2+
31%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ROHDA Raalte 1+ goals
86%
ROHDA Raalte 2+ goals
59%
ROHDA Raalte 3+ goals
31%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
72%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
37%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ROHDA Raalte (draw refunded)
68%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ROHDA Raalte at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ROHDA Raalte attack 1.91 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + ROHDA Raalte defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ROHDA Raalte scores more
53%
level
22%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
25%

ROHDA Raalte at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ROHDA Raalte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: ROHDA Raalte 1–1 Ajax Amateurs

ROHDA Raalte and Ajax Amateurs drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Tijenraan in Raalte.