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Ajax Amateurs vs ROHDA Raalte — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
ROHDA Raalte
ROHDA Raalte
10/26/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 11Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ajax Amateurs36%
×Draw23%
ROHDA Raalte41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.60
ROHDA Raalte
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
ROHDA Raalte
1.79

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
ROHDA Raalte
1.62

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
ROHDA Raalte+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

ROHDA Raalte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
59%
Ajax Amateurs or ROHDA Raalte
77%
Draw or ROHDA Raalte
64%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
17%
ROHDA Raalte wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
80%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
47%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
22%
ROHDA Raalte 1+ goals
82%
ROHDA Raalte 2+ goals
52%
ROHDA Raalte 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
46%
ROHDA Raalte (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

ROHDA Raalte away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + ROHDA Raalte defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

ROHDA Raalte attack 1.79 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
36%
level
23%
ROHDA Raalte scores more
41%

ROHDA Raalte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ROHDA Raalte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Ajax Amateurs 3–4 ROHDA Raalte

ROHDA Raalte beat Ajax Amateurs 4-3 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.